Instead of Vamos A LA PLAYA it's now ABANDONADO EL PAIS

[PeterHeirman]

Increasingly people are leaving Spain: both strangers and Spaniards
http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/10/15/espana/1350297856.html

The lesser people in Spain the bigger the real estate problem as there will be nobody to buy the empty condo's and houses.

[gusangus]

The ones that are leaving have not got any money so could not afford to buy     the ones that are wanted are those who have got money and have not yet heard of the bargins that are available

[PeterHeirman]

@ gusangus where are the bargains ?

[Spike On Q]

Just walk into any estate agents office with a big roll of bank notes and make an offer at half of the asking price, then negotiate away. As you've got the cash you have the upper hand, they want to sell, have a property that no one wants [except you] and they are often forced to sell at a loss. It's called supply and demand, there are 100's of properties for sale in the supply chain and nobody demanding them, price reduces to where property begins to sell as it becomes a perceived "bargain".

[glenys]

Also with the threat of prosecution for illegal lettings there will be even more properties for sale.

[PeterHeirman]

Ok. At half the asking price I'm interested.
We have the cash ready to show.
They (the owners) have their debts to pay.

[Ivemovedon]

The mad rush to buy will only begin when prices start to go up. Thats when the scavangers will panic they are missing the boat of rock bottom prices. And go up they will.....eventually.

[PeterHeirman]

@Stedge: prices will go up earliest 2015 if one compares to US or Ireland.

Due to the outflow/emigration this might even take longer as both US and Ireland didn't have emigration of the Spanish scale.
http://news.yahoo.com/spanish-emigration-sharply-2012-132913831.html
540,000 people in 12 months: 80,000 Spaniards and 460,000 foreigners is at least 200,000 more empty houses/condo's in tourist area's.
Currently they don't sell 200,000 houses/condo's a year in the costa's and canaries. So there might even be an increase of empty properties on the costa's which will result in an even longer time before prices go up 2016 ? 2017 ? 2108 ?

[Ivemovedon]

True enough it may take some time. But rather than give your property away for nothing my advice would be that if at all possible hang in there. The time WILL arrive when your place will again be an asset rather than a millstone round your neck.I don't have much time for the bargain hunters purely for the fact that someones rock bottom gain is someone elses dream gone down the plughole along with all the dinero invested in that dream. I have a sneaky feeling things may turn around for home owners a lttle bit quicker than the vultures would hope. As for the emigration, people come and people go. It will even itself out over time. Less Spaniards maybe but a few more rich Russians .

[fifi]

House prices have started to rise in Dublin I am happy to say. Long may it continue.

[Ivemovedon]

Apparently the same in the Uk fifi.

[fifi]

Thats good Stedge.

[waggy]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/workers-benefits-avoid-eviction-082441660.html
Sorry, folks; don't get too excited just yet.

[PeterHeirman]

Spanish real estate prices will drop - significantly 35%- 40% or more due to:
- keeping up the appearances will cause more trouble afterwards
- any process men disturbs has a bigger overshoot: banks are keeping up the prices
- the small population of possible buyers: Norway - Sweden - Denmark - Switzerland and Belgium
- the higher retirement age: previously people would be retired at 55 - now they will have to wait until 62 at least - that's a gap 7 years of people that won't buy a place in the sun as they have to sit in their office - until they might be just too old to go and buy a place in the sun.

The people with money are in Asia: Inditex (=Zara & all their other brands) became #1 fashion retailer of the world due to their worldwide presence and winning mainly from H&M with more locations in Asia. People from Asia are not going to buy real-estate in Spain - certainly not in Fuerteventura. 

[emmi]

Do you have a hidden agenda PeterHeirman? I am getting a bit fed up with all your gloom and doom posts.  We know what is happening, but most of us  put a smile on our faces and get on with it.  Nearly all your posts since you joined this forum seemed to be aimed at highlighting the unfortunate property situation.

I think this thread should be merged with the El Hierro one, seem to be made for each other! 

[Ivemovedon]

Don't worry. he forgot the russians. The red rouble will save us all.

[waggy]

I agree with Peter, Emmi, purely on the grounds of common sense and history repeating itself. Perhaps you're lucky enough to be young  - but not too young to learn, I hope.
The Spanish banks are going to have to bite the bullet at some stage and write down their inflated housing stock, thus causing prices to fall even further. Either that or they'll go bust. No amount of wishful thinking can change that. It's just politically unacceptable to expect the new European Bail-out fund to cater for that kind of mismanagement.
Prices will not start to rise again until the true rock-bottom is reached which will be when all of the artificial masking factors are ironed out of the market.
No one in their right minds would buy at the moment.

[Ivemovedon]

no one in their right minds would sell at the moment either.

[emmi]

I am not saying I disagree with his predictions, just fed up with hearing them day after day.  And I am old enough to remember the UK recession and property crash of the early 70s, when I had to sell a property and lost a lot of money on it.  However, if I had been lucky enough to have been able to hold onto it, today's value is around £750,000 +!  (even in the current market)

[Ivemovedon]

There's still money coming to the island at the top end of the market. Foriegn investors continue buying up plots of land and building on them to their own specifications mainly in the more rural areas. The cost of some of these
places by wealthy Danes and Russians etc are testament to the fact that the euro crash holds no fears for these people. Problem lies at the bottom end of the market. Developers built these apartments and houses en masse for a quick turnover sometimes in iffy locations  and they got away with it for a long while. Not so now. For the owners of these it makes no sense to sell now when theres thousands of empty ones going begging, you will just be making someone else a few bob long term out of all your hard efforts . It may well take time to turn around, 2 years, 5 years who knows?. Not even you peter i'm afraid. History (and common sense) dictates the fact it will... its all a question of timescale and if you can hold out long enough.

[emmi]

A sensible statement, Stedge!

[waggy]

Agreed, Stedge; Time to sit tight for a while I think, and watch.

[PeterHeirman]

I have no hidden agenda. Seems I present facts some of you don't want to hear (and 99% of Spaniards probably don't want to hear at all).

There is a big real-estate problem (bigger than the US and Ireland ever had) and it won't get solved by sticking your head in the sand of Corralejo dunes (this is what Spanish banks are doing as else they are probably bankrupt at the real prices for the real estate they own - banks own over 50% of the empty condo's and casas).

@waggy - I hope you survive while sitting tight as the decrease in prices can last for 5 years - if ever.

Good luck with selling to Russians or getting them as a neighbor.

[Ivemovedon]

What would you like us all to do then ?. Panic and sell up for the circling sharks to make a killing. No thanks mate i know the problems are vast at the moment without you telling me but i'll do as waggy says and hold tight if you don't mind. And i hope others are sensible enough to do the same.

Not a great lover of the Ivans personally but i'd have no trouble taking their money if i chose to sell and was lucky enough to get a buyer. In fact i'd relish the prospect.

[waggy]

Perhaps I shouldn't say this, Peter and Stedge: I've been retired for 2 years now and should, if Plan A had swung seamlessly into action, have been enjoying it in Fuerte.  BUT, when things started to go mammaries upwards in 2008, my muse and I thought, 'Now hang on a goldarned minute; let's see how this pans out before we make a move.'
So here we are, still on Anglesey, having our 2 hols a year on Fuerte (except for one in Kerry last month, which didn't really feel like a holiday, being on the same latitude with the same lack of quality sunshine). We're still waiting for it to bottom here and there but on the up side, Anglesey is the English Costa Geriatrica nowadays and so house prices are holding pretty well due to steady demand for retirement homes. And my muse is delaying her retirement a bit further.
It's all writing, fishing, birding and gardening with free prescriptions so, lack of sun and Winter blues apart, life's pretty contented at the moment. I have to say, though, I'm really looking forward to that fortnight in February.

[Ivemovedon]

sellers and purchasers have different ways of looking at the situation wag and i think mr heirman is waiting for the deal that will crucify some unsuspecting home owner. Have a good retirement and i hope you eventually get a great property deal  if or when you decide to go for it. ( without sending the original owner to the workhouse though)

[waggy]

Peter talks a lot of common sense, Stedge, and is not afraid of telling it as he sees it. It's in keeping with my own thoughts on the matter.
Having said that, if I had gone ahead 4 years ago I would have become one of the afflicted as it were. But, on the other hand, if I'd retired to the place of my dreams the loss of money would not have counted for very much - at least my kids would not have been saddled with so much inheritance tax.
Why should people over a certain age continue to think of property as an 'investment', why not as a home, instead?

[Ivemovedon]

 mr heiman seems suspiciously too ecstatic at the dismal economic situation for my liking wag.

[emmi]

What would you like us all to do then ?. Panic and sell up for the circling sharks to make a killing

i think mr heirman is waiting for the deal that will crucify some unsuspecting home owner.

mr heiman seems suspiciously too ecstatic at the dismal economic situation for my liking wag.

Indeed!

And here's the hidden agenda as said by Mr. Heirman:

Ok. At half the asking price I'm interested.
We have the cash ready to show.
They (the owners) have their debts to pay.

[Ivemovedon]

i'll double the asking price and he can have it for half of that lol.

no debts you see mr hierman )