El Hierro

[cllrcollins]

Looks like the UK Foreign Office think the show is over! Sorry about that Jand[]

http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/travel-and-living-abroad/travel-advice-by-country/europe/spain

[jand]

earthquake-report.com

Update 06/01 – 12:57 UTC
 - Why is there NO OPERATOR on the Cabildo / Telefonica webcam
 A lot of activity but NO zoomed image !

Update 06/01 – 10:26 UTC
 - A lot of continuing activity @ the Las Calmas sea, however no webcam operator to zoom the cam on the vent. This maybe the best advice for the eruption webcam : Zoom it into a little wider area than the zoom factor of the U-stream cam and we see everything what is happening above the vent. The vent hasn't changed location since many weeks, thus the location will always be right.
 - We still think that the touristic potential of a HD-webcam would be great for El Hierro – The cost is minimal for a company like Telefonica. Find below how a HD- image looks like in Iceland (they have many HD-cams on their volcanoes). Why has Iceland HD-webcams on their volcanoes ? Because they are using it both as information to their own people and to attract tourism to the island (they need every tourist dollar after the crisis)
 - Since many days people have difficulties linking to the webcam. Using the IP address helps and refreshing helps too, but nobody at Telefonica seems to follow the cam and is doing something about it. This is basic server operations, nothing special.

[jand]

Update 06/01 – 09:58 UTC
 - The area where the smoking blocks are surfacing is a lot wider than yesterday.

[jand]

criseh says:

 January 6, 2012 at 12:55


Hi guys! And a Happy New Year!
 It seems a happy new boiling/bubbling Bob, also
I suppose that is fresh new start up and am I see good or not, boiling water? Where are those damn thermal cams?

[jand]

http://212.170.244.196/

Lots of steam and activity at the moment on the webcam.

[jand]

CllrCollins

I think the UK FCO seriously should watch whats happening on the webcam this moment .

Newby says:

 January 6, 2012 at 13:17

On the moviestar cam there is now a steady stream of smoke or steam coming from the eruption site, either a tremendous amount of restingolites or else Bob is very near the surface.

Reply

[jand]

Armand Vervaeck says:

 January 6, 2012 at 13:30


What currently happens is VERY STRANGE
 We cannot check it of course, because we have no serious cams, but the smoke tends to be continuous from one source. Until now we always had smoke patches, NEVER a continuous smoking source (2 now).
 This does not mean he will go Surtseyan, but it is a new fact nevertheless.

Reply

sativacyborg says:

 January 6, 2012 at 13:36

yes i noticed the same Armend! i think it might be turbulent/boiling water.

Reply

[jand]

Newby says:

 January 6, 2012 at 13:37

Hi Armand, I am just totally amazed that they have allowed the other two cams to still be out of action although I suppose as in England, when you get the holiday period everything stops for fun. This though is a serious problem now, no one can tell what is actually happening without sending a boat or helicopter and I wouldn't want to be close in a boat at the moment.

[jand]

Update 06/01 – 13:51 UTC
 Julio del Castillo Vivero (the time lapse specialist studying photography in the UK) has just made a call the the ACN press people (U-stream cam). Here is what he got to now :
 Just been on the phone with ACN Press. Today, as it is a holiday, there was only a person incharge, and the technical side is not in today. She said she would try making a few calls and see if there would be any luck. If today can't be repaired, she said tomorrow (but its saturday, so lets see... could be like this till Monday).

[jand]

Suponiendo que ahora fueran las dos bocas juntas, que es lo que yo creo, ya no sería Bimbachito propiamente dicho, así que tendrías que buscarle otros nombres nuevos. Podías llamarles por ej. Bimbachín y Bimbachete...Ja, ja, ja!!! Ahora en serio, esto parece como si encendieran una hoguera debajo del agua, es que el humo es tremendo.

CRAZY! Assuming that they were now the two mouths together, which is what I believe, no longer be proper Bimbachito, so you'd have to find other new names. You could call them eg. Bimbachín and Bimbachete...JA, ja, ja! Seriously, this seems as if they went a bonfire under water, is that the smoke is tremendous. (Translated by Bing)

[jand]

Fifi/SurfJames/Glen are you watching the webcam is fascinating.

[jand]

Update 06/01 – 13:55 UTC
 - Thanks to Julio del Castillo Vivero and the ACN Press people, the U-stream webcam is back online.
 - NOBODY seems to bother about what is going on at the vent.
 - It's Three Kings Day, a festival day in Spain, that maybe the real reason about what is happening.
 - We are wandering if people at La Restinga feel OK with what is happening (in the meantime, Joke told me that people at La Restinga are telling her that there is "a lot of activity" today).
 - No helicopters, no boats.  No infrared camera's at night.
 - Joke went to the CAP science center a little while ago and the IGN people on duty said – As usual, nothing special.
 - IGN People at CAP were laughing about the burning lava at sea the day before yesterday (thousands of people have seen this phenomenon, images are online, videos are online, what else do they need to be convinced that gas was ignited +  Joke has confirmed the burning lava with her binoculars ).
 This site is not a "science fiction site, but a factual site".

[jand]

Carl le Strange says:

 January 6, 2012 at 15:52


Oh my Godabunga!

That is just plain Stunning!!!
 IGN seems to have been smoking something really strong to say that this is business as usuall.

Here is quick theory about what we are seeing.
 Bob has lost gas pressure, quite a lot of it. And that shows on the tremor-chart. But the lava has been going at the same rate, or even higher pace. I think that we now have an effusive phase with lava being ejected in Hawaiian style. So the explosivity level is almost zero. The only explosivity will be as water steamflashes. But there will be no rooster tails Surtseyan styla. It will just be more and more of the ocean cooking as Bob gets ready to lowly emerge.
 But I do think Bob has been very active the last few day. I would say that he is getting much closer to the surface to be able to do this level of steaming.
 The only question I have is how close Bob is to the surface. I guess we will never get a realiable answer from IGN about it. So here is my guess for whatever it is worth. I think Bob has well passes the 50 meter mark by now. And that the lava flows is sollidifying in such a way that the sides of Bob is really steep, giving a fast rate of buildup, much faster then before when it was pumice pillows that was the main product coming out.
 And by the way, the amount of pyroclasts was low in the video, for whatever that is worth.

[jand]

YOUR ACTION IS URGENTLY NEEDED
 Since a few days nobody at Telefonica or Movistar (the commercial trade mark) is doing something on their server issue. We need your assistance and hope you wil URGENTLY tweet the followig sentence. Ask your friends to Retweet as much as possible.

@movistar_es  ¡Las webcams de la erupción volcánica en El Hierro NO FUNCIONAN! Hay mucha actividad, por favor arreglarlas pronto. Gracias

Translated : The El Hierro eruption webcams DO NOT WORK. There is a lot of activity, please fix them as soon as possible. Thank You

Update 06/01 – 16:44 UTC
 - IGN has listed a new shallow earthquake with a magnitude of 1.2 at a depth of 7 km. It happened at 13:48 UTC to the SW of El Pinar (in fact right below the Tacaron coast)

[jand]

Avcan FB Copied

After reading the report of the IGN and the emergency service of the iron, copied from the previous one, it makes me want to cry. Yesterday, apparently and according to this institution who monitors the development of the iron volcanic phenomenon, and any other that occur in our country, there were no materials or pyroclastic on the surface, when in the photos of the INVOLCAN are quite clear and also saw them in the only webcam is operational (country ashamed) and points to the area of burbujeos. There is also no information of deformation or at least they have been unwilling to interpret what you can see in the charts of that same Institute on its website showing signs they should at least concern to these scientists, if they know what they are doing. If this is the value given to this phenomenon, singular and unique, if this is the importance they give to research and monitoring of the same, if this is the concern for the evolution and the possible loss of the safety of persons residing in La Restinga or anywhere in the country, as they say in my country, "save me a puppy". Better to go by where it came from and leave to other scientists (capitalized) to do what you like civil servants paid by all Spaniards do not know or want to do. And above or have ships, nor one of fishing to collect stones, with the boats that are standing on the pier died of punishment for not be able to work, and pay them... I would be. THE IMAGINATION TO POWER, PUSSY!
See Translation

[jand]

Humberto, that tell the wind... If they begin to produce explosions and there is luck and wind not it conducts to la Restinga can rid of the worst, but nonetheless if it starts to throw bombs volcáncias these can become between 400 and 1000 m, depending on various factors.... for riddling the pier stoned to death and can be part of the population, and that at best... in the worst cases already spoke in his day, open close or in the locality and delete... best map to stay where this is the best for all... (Henry)
38 minutes ago · Like · 7

[jand]

Carlos says:

 January 6, 2012 at 21:46


I think Ign´s reports are only basic, very basic, ultrabasic, childhoods reports...
 Only objetive facts as an child may tell us watching the spectrogram and the sea surface...
 My son of 9 years can tell me more information than the IGN reports us in their updates...
 I think is needed a chapter in the reports explaining wich is the situation of the eruption...
 Not only if eruption is on-off.
 Explaining more details...
 Now in this moment people cant understand why are so big the amounts of piroclastes on the sea surface...
 I think in this moment is necesary that THE DICTADURE OF THE PRESIDENCE OF CANARIAS WITH THE BENEPLACIT OF THE SPAIN GOVERMENT orders THEIR SCIENTISTS gave an explanation to the people of EL HIERRO.
 I made my bet before...
 The best mode of avoid speculations is INFORMATION, INFORMATION, INFORMATION...
 When information glow by abscense, rumors and speculations go on

[jand]

volcanocafe

Anyway. I digitized several IGN GPS station data and put it in one plot. Still haven't gotten around to the Mogi yet. As noted yesterday, I'm gonna have to make some assumptions about where the freaking magma chamber is at.

During the run up phase, I assumed (always be careful when you assume) that it was at about 15 to 17 km deep and 4.1 miles from stations FRON. That's where I came up with the 750K m³/day estimate. (actually, 798,645 m³/d with 34.8 mm lateral displacement at FRON)

This covered the accumulation rate up until Bob went "pop" and the jacuzzi started. (63,891,583 m³ total in the 80 days until eruption) If you also assume that Bob has been acting as a relief valve (well, Bob and any related but unseen vents) then you can take the relatively flat GPS displacement to mean that Bob and crew are venting off what is accumulating in the chamber.

That puts the effusive rate at the 750K to 800K m³/d level.

I haven't done a new Mogi yet.... mainly since I'm not really sure where to stick the chamber. (no, I am not sticking it there, that would be physically impossible) Another reason is that I'm still rummaging around to find my spreadsheets. (eight drives and a couple of TB of number two scattered all over the place)

And... the third reason, which I mentioned earlier, is that I think that the current distortion field shows a shallower and possibly bifurcated chamber(s).

From yesterday

http://i40.tinypic.com/ibml8i.jpg

The positive values east of FRON are number two. There is no positive displacement east of FRON in the data! It shows up in the plot like that due to the way that the quadratic surface deals with fitting the available data points. As noted on the plot, lines of bearing to the stations east of FRON show a negative displacement. (IZAN, LPAL etc) This means that FRON and those stations are closer together.

What is important in that plot, is the area west of FRON. Thats the direction of Sabinosa and Los Llanillos.

In that direction, there are two really strong displacements straddling a not so strong displacement. Where the color bands are squashed together are going to be the locations that have the most displacement... and if there is uplift (which we can't see from IGN's truncated GPS data) it's going to be at those points.

Now my most recent plot.

http://i39.tinypic.com/ta3pg5.png

This is a running plot of the IGN GPS data and the quakes (with depth) that was going on at that time. As you can see, the displacement settled down to a pretty constant level once Bob started.

The disturbing thing to note, and the part that is used in the previous map style plot, are the last few days. Something kicked the displacement into high gear. Dunno what. That is what makes me think that there may be a shallower set of magma accumulations.

As for the idea of it being hot water... nah. If water gets hot enough to expand to that amount of pressure (to cause the observed distortion) it would have ruptured the surface and we would be looking at geysers.

Well, them be the plots and my take on it. I'm not a geologist... so I could be wrong.

Ruminate at you leisure.

[jand]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/acn-media

The sea is still steaming andcan be seen on the above webcam link and there have been two new shallow earthquakes this morning in the W PINAR region.

[jand]

volcanocafe

El Hierro – Fast GPS Displacement

Posted on January 7, 2012by volcanocafe



I digitized several IGN GPS station data and put it in one plot. Still haven't gotten around to the Mogi yet. As noted yesterday, I'm going to have to make some assumptions about where the freaking magma chamber is at.

During the run up phase, I assumed (always be careful when you assume) that it was at about 15 to 17 km deep and 4.1 miles from stations FRON. That's where I came up with the 750K m³/day estimate. (actually, 798,645 m³/d with 34.8 mm lateral displacement at FRON)

This covered the accumulation rate up until Bob went "pop" and the Jacuzzi started. (63,891,583 m³ total in the 80 days until eruption) If you also assume that Bob has been acting as a relief valve (well, Bob and any related but unseen vents) then you can take the relatively flat GPS displacement to mean that Bob and crew are venting off what is accumulating in the chamber.

That puts the effusive rate at the 750K to 800K m³/d level.

I haven't done a new Mogi yet.... mainly since I'm not really sure where to stick the chamber. (no, I am not sticking it there, that would be physically impossible) Another reason is that I'm still rummaging around to find my spreadsheets. (eight drives and a couple of TB of number two scattered all over the place)

And... the third reason, which I mentioned earlier, is that I think that the current distortion field shows a shallower and possibly bifurcated chamber(s).

From yesterday




GeoLurking

Larger picture http://i40.tinypic.com/ibml8i.jpg

The positive values east of FRON are number two. There is no positive displacement east of FRON in the data! It shows up in the plot like that due to the way that the quadratic surface deals with fitting the available data points. As noted on the plot, lines of bearing to the stations east of FRON show a negative displacement. (IZAN, LPAL etc) This means that FRON and those stations are closer together.

What is important in that plot, is the area west of FRON. Thats the direction of Sabinosa and Los Llanillos.

In that direction, there are two really strong displacements straddling a not so strong displacement. Where the color bands are squashed together are going to be the locations that have the most displacement... and if there is uplift (which we can't see from IGN's truncated GPS data) it's going to be at those points.

Now my most recent plot




Image: GeoLurking

Larger picture http://i39.tinypic.com/ta3pg5.png

This is a running plot of the IGN GPS data and the quakes (with depth) that was going on at that time. As you can see, the displacement settled down to a pretty constant level once Bob started.

The disturbing thing to note, and the part that is used in the previous map style plot, are the last few days. Something kicked the displacement into high gear. Don't know what. That is what makes me think that there may be a shallower set of magma accumulations.

As for the idea of it being hot water... nah. If water gets hot enough to expand to that amount of pressure (to cause the observed distortion) it would have ruptured the surface and we would be looking at geysers.

Well, there are the plots and my take on it. I'm not a geologist... so I could be wrong.

It may or may not be correct, but I have read papers that postulate that the El Golfo slide may have generated decompression melting. I have no idea how long this goes on, but I found it curious that one day, this swarm just started out of the blue. To me, its as if the magma formed in place and started moving. Now, after Bob has taken some stress out of the system, new material gets mobile.

Ruminate at you leisure.

GeoLurking



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This entry was posted in Canary Islands, El Hierro, Europe, GPS, Inflation, magma chamber, Spain, Volcano and tagged accumulation rate, Bob, Canary Islands, El Hierro, Europe, GPS, ign, Inflation, lateral displacement, magma chamber, mogi, Spain, volcano. Bookmark the permalink.


#8592; El Hierro – Enter the Steamy Bob



5 Responses to El Hierro – Fast GPS Displacement


Carl le Strange says:

 January 7, 2012 at 15:26


This post was taken from the fantastic comment by Lurking (GeoLurking).
 I felt that it was far to important to be hidden among all the hundreds of comments from the last post.
 And also that the residents on El Hierro needed to know that something has changed under El Hierro that might have effects on their daily life.
 I hope that Lurking wont beat me to hard for this.
 /Carl

Reply



Tyler Mannison says:

 January 7, 2012 at 15:41


So I take it that this isn't a good sign?

Reply


Carl le Strange says:

 January 7, 2012 at 15:46


It is a sign that something has changed down under El Hierro. Probably that the rate of magma arrival has increased and that systemic pressure is increasing again. It also explains that Bob has gotten a second lease on life.
 One should note that even though Bob has increased activity, pressure is still going up.

What this means in the long run is uncertain. But we can probably expect that Bob now has energy enough to go on for a while. I still think that Bob will work as a pressure relief valve, and that nothing more will happen. But, I may be wrong on this of course.

Reply

[jand]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/acn-media

The sea is still steaming can be seen on the above link.

[jand]

There has been a 2.1 earthquake today in nearly the same exact position of the 3.5 the other day.

1120374
07/01/2012
11:30:48
29.1035
-14.2120
 15
2.1
4
ATLÁNTICO-CANARIAS

[jand]

Update 07/01 – 13:43 UTC
 - On the picture below you can see the vapor/(gas mixture?) hanging above the wide stirring area.  We are convinced that Involcan will have measured the concentrations from the helicopter, but until now whe haven not seen the results from these measurements. They might not be published after all.




Update 07/01 – 13:20 UTC
 - A new M 2.1 earthquake occurred at 11:30 at a depth of 15 km to the west of Lanzarote at approx. the same location than another one, a few days ago.

Update 07/01 – 13:17 UTC – How to connect to the Cabildo / Telefonica webcam
 - We do not complain at the moment because we have an image for now.
 - Readers like David (and many others) cannot get connected to this webcam. Here are a few tips from us and other readers who are more lucky
 1 -  ER : Use both La Restinga village – Eruption webcam  links on top of this screen. These links are connecting you with an IP address, not a name address which may have another IP number. Select the cam you want. If you get a "FileNotFound" error, refresh you page (F5 in most cases or the recycle sign in your browser) every time you receive the error message. After 5 to 10 times your in. Success
 2 – Daniel : try more often! I got the same error as you. After the 5th click, it worked. Another hint: First click on the "Panoramica general"-cam, and after that on "Zona de erupcion"-cam. That solved my problem sitting in front of a black error screen...!
 3 – Diana : Hi David...try this, http://www.elhierrowebcam.com/

Update 07/01 – 13:03 UTC
 -  Due to the long time that the helicopter is in the air, we assume that he returned to the scene with other people and that he has seen new elements (this is only a guess, but so far we haven't seen the helicopter this long in the past).
 - The poor Ustream webcam who did such a terrific job the last couple of days is unfortunately zoomed next to the action (we pardon them is this is a fix camera).
 - The Cabildo webcams are now offering the better view showing us a VERY WIDE stirring area with occasional big SLS. They must be big as the cam is not very much zoomed !

[jand]

[jand]

Heather B says:

 January 7, 2012 at 17:11


Three more Eq's.
 07/01/2012 15:34:01 27.6847 -18.0913 14.6 1.2 mbLg W EL PINAR.IHI – El Hierro
 07/01/2012 15:57:33 27.6769 -18.0878 18.5 1.1 mbLg SW EL PINAR.IHI – El Hierro
 07/01/2012 15:59:37 27.7399 -18.0949 18.9 1.2 mbLg W FRONTERA.IHI – El Hierro

Reply


Mr. Moho says:

 January 7, 2012 at 17:14


Could you please share the url to see those?
 This page only lists >M1.5 earthquake for the area:
 http://www.ign.es/ign/layoutIn/volcaListadoTerremotos.do?zona=2&cantidad_dias=10

Reply




Carl le Strange says:

 January 7, 2012 at 17:17


I just saw my first rooster tail.
 Sadly I missed taking a shot.
 Darkbrown water with several restingolitas shooting up out of the water, aproximatly 5 meters up, but that is a wild guess. It is after all very hard to judge the scale.

Reply


Carl le Strange says:

 January 7, 2012 at 17:20


Which really begs the question... How close to the surface is Bob now?
 We know Bob was at the 100 meter mark in mid december. And let us guess that it climbed another ten meters during the slow time.
 And I could accept that it has climbed another 40 meters during the last few days of very high activity. So, guesstimating wildly here. I would say 50 meters by now. Or even less.

Reply

[jand]

volcano cafe copied.

URGENTLY...
 Is needed that the SCIENTISTS property of POLITICIANS transmit a press conference EXPLAINING what is dued the actual activiy when we are said Bob is less energetic since december 8th...
 We know this activity is named STEAMING I hope the IGN technicians coul go more far away explaining us WHY.
 The very famous Carracedo tell us Bob was died since november 8th when Bob was in contact with water and hifromagmatyc reaction.
 My bet is like the scientist theory where the levels of energy, magma and are below than before datas... And the present activity could be dued by an internal fight inside the volcanic building by the management of cristallized magma, conduits and vents...
 I dont think the actual phenomenon was dued by an important energy or magma gain nor dued by Bob nearer the surface...
 How many time is needed for the guys and ladys of IGN could tell us an explanation?
 Of course WITH THE PERMISION OF PEVOLCA.
 I guess in the next days miss López (IGN) will be interviewed by some local newspaper and tell us what is happening...

It´s needed in the updates daily of IGN a chapter telling the trslation of the objetive facts telling us which is the situation of the eruption going more far away of the words ON-OFF...

[jand]

Carl le Strange says:

 January 7, 2012 at 17:38


Well Carlos, I think we can safely say that A) Bob did not die on the 8th of december, and B) that during the last few days there has been a significant infusion of new magma into the system.
 This has led to renewed high activity at Bob. Earlier the activity at Bob was enough to relieve the systemic pressure of the magma reservoirs under El Hierro. This is no longer the case. The pressure is rapidly increasing, this will probably not result in a new eruption site, but it will make Bobs eruption increase, and be sustained for some time.
 How long and how much depends on how long the rapid rate of inflation continues.
 Rest assured that you, and everybode else will get to know what is happening at this site in our continuing coverage of Bob and El Hierro.

IGN will not, either due to incompetence, or due to political manouvering, be able to answer your questions. Same goes for the other agencies.

Reply

[jand]

Photo taken earlier today.

[jand]

Todays video taken by the helicopter of the stain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crG6lOgW6uU&feature=player_embedded

[jand]

volcanocafe

Betty says:

 January 7, 2012 at 20:04


Welcome, Bobbi...See, now that's just the point. Apparently, rooster tails are beginning to come up. Now is the time to practice evacuation drills. I believe that the closer it gets, the quicker it will build. La Restinga is within reach of Bob. I am all for ringside seats when it makes sense, but not now. Not sure why the govmint is not alarmed. What do they see that we don't, or otherwise, why can't they see this? . Well, they can tell us why Restinga is safe! I want a press conference explaining what they are thinking! Or, if not, which one of them lives in La Restinga?

I am more worried about landslides at this point, however. The creepy pattern of EQs is a bit alarming. Maybe I am wrong, feel free to correct me, but it seems to me that always before when Bob spouted, the EQs stopped. But they are not stopping. None apparently near Bob, though. That's weird.

I think that the EQs are still not shallow enough to start a slide, but something is going on. Not trying to scaremonger, but the deformation details ARE very important. The possibility of landslides as a hazard–and I'm not talking tiny gullywashers–may be what is driving the authorities beyond worry about a Surtseyan event. It always has been, but they are not following the data much, or they are keeping it quiet.

I want more information! I want a press conference with real information and ideas. I want to know the level of gases on the whole island, and I want them real time! If you don't have enough personnel, there are TOURISTS who would do it for free, just to be helpful! Get going! You might have to swaddle the new Bimbache boy sooner than you think!