House prices

[fifi]

Article by Spanish property insight.



The team setting up Spain's so-called "bad bank" do not expect Spanish house prices to rebound anytime soon.


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The team setting up Spain's so-called "bad bank", actual name Sareb, forecast that Spanish house prices will fall for the next two years, then stagnate for two years, before starting to increase at an annual rate of 3pc in 2017.

The precise forecast is a fall 2.8pc in 2013 and 1.5pc in 2014, followed by two years of stable prices 2015-2016.

After falling 12.5pc in 2013 and 5pc in 2014, land prices are forecast to recover in 2016, but then grow by 2.5pc p.a., so less than house prices.

These are the assumptions being made by the government agency (Frob) setting up the Sareb, to forecast a 15pc return on investment for taxpayers and other investors over 15 years.

The "bad bank" will also consider demolishing unfinished new buildings that have no viable market, according to recent reports. However, there will be no demolitions before 2016.

[djk99]

That's quite a gloomy prospectus for an organisation looking to capture investment.

[fifi]

Yes it is rather DJK99 but I guess in reality no one knows exactly how things wil turn out.

[kevin2003]

The precise forecast is a fall 2.8pc in 2013 and 1.5pc in 2014, followed by two years of stable prices 2015-2016.

Absolute tosh.

Peak minus 60% for prime property and Peak minus 70-75% for sub prime will be the floor in my opinion and we're still a good way off that here.Then three to four years on the bottom...... followed by the prospect of some very modest growth.A pick up in the world economy could reduce this recovery period considerably.

[Blueboy7]

It baffles me why they lump Fuerteventura in with Spain,"I am not the brightest star in the sky", and I fully appreciate that the property situation in Fueteventura mirrors mainland Spain i.e over-building, greed and corruption at every level,that is apart from the average home owner. Instead of listening to what the Spanish Government says all of the time, organise local business think tanks, get other Stakeholders involved, look for outside business partners to help fund "Expert local PR and Mainland European Promotion for Fuerteventura Property". Try a few experimental internet property auctions, tie in with UK auction houses see if they can assist. I think my point is, you never see any promotion for Fuerteventura as a "Stand Alone" entity apart from in holiday brochures or the one TV campaign we had. The "Place in the Sun" programme did more harm than good as it showed you nothing Fuerteventura has to offer, which is probably the best Beach holiday destination in Europe.It costs a third less to live in Fuerteventura than the UK, the weather is brilliant, the people are great, its serious crime free (compared with mainland europe). I can go on and on but I wont bore you anymore.

You get fed up with hearing, doom and gloom, its this muck up with legislation or this fee is coming into place or that Tax will have the fine increased for non payment. If they spent a bit of time, money (Borrow it and take a chance) and effort on trying a promote in new directions they might get somewere.

[fifi]

Another article by Spanish Property insight.......The Canary Islands  share of the bad bank housing stock according to this article accounts for just 4% of the total housing stock.

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Most of the stock of repossessed homes taken over by Spain's "bad bank" will be in just 4 regions, according to press reports.





Spain's so-called "bad bank" (proper name Sareb), set up to take over the real estate assets of Spain's nationalised banks, will have its biggest challenges in Catalonia, the Valencian Region, Madrid, and Andalucia, which will account for 66pc of it's repossessed stock between them (see table above).

Originally valued at around 18 billion Euros in total, some 75pc of the assets will be categorised as "illiquid" or hard to sell, say press reports. Many of them will have been built in coastal areas with foreign holiday-home buyers in mind.

More like a colossal real estate company than a bank, the Sareb could struggle to attract buyers and compete with other banks if it is not in a position to offer mortgage financing, warns a recent report from the European Commission. "Spanish banks will probably prove big rivals for the Sareb, as the majority of them already offer favourable financing terms to buyers of their real estate assets," explains the report. "Unless the Sareb can offer similar financing conditions to its clients through financing deals with banks, it will find it more difficult to sell its assets."